The Science of Gambling

There's no real science to gambling, only probability. And with that theme in mind, Australasian Science's Editor, Guy Nolch, presented a segment in October 2000 on Radio National's The Science Show examining the probability of beating the casino in a number of games, as well as the best way to pick the winner of the Melbourne Cup (the script is online here). The segment drew a number of responses from listeners who wanted Guy's tips, and these were published on the Australasian Science website. The three tips and a longshot came in first, second, fourth and sixth.

Each year since then, Australasian Science has received a number of requests for Melbourne Cup tips, so we've continued to place these on the website. In 2001 the tips also finished first, second , fourth and sixth. Tips weren't posted in 2002 when Guy was overseas. In 2003 the top tip, Makybe Diva, went on to win the big race, while the other tips and longshot finished third, fourth, fifth and sixth.

We'll be doing the same this year, publishing preliminary tips on the Sunday morning before the race and final tips on Tuesday morning once factors such as the state of the track and scratchings are apparent.

Caulfield Cup
(filed Monday 11 October 2004)

We've never put Caulfield Cup tips up before, but this year looks pretty straightforward.

Caulfield usually favours front-runners, particularly last Saturday. And with a big field of 18 in the Cup, the backmarkers also need some luck in running to win. Look at the last two Cup winners, Mummify and Northerly, for examples of the benefits of racing in the first six (they were good horses too!).

There are three in-form frontrunners this year. Elvstroem has been sensational in his past two wins, sitting about fifth until the turn before showing great acceleration to win comfortably. He's a Derby winner (2500 metres), so he'll run the 2400 metre trip out easily.

Confectioner has been beaten by Elvstroem this spring but will carry less weight, so he could turn the tables.

And Mummify is back in form. He loves Caulfield, 2400 metres and will go forward too. Note that he needs a dry track, and will carry more weight this year.

Predictably these are the three favourites, but this is based on sound form and logic and it's hard to look beyond these three.

Balmuse defeated Starcraft last start in New Zealand. I don't know much more about him, but he could be a good longshot.

This analysis is provided before the barrier draw or state of the track is known.

RESULTS (16 October 2004)

• Elvstroem 1st
• Confectioner 15th (no excuses)
• Mummify (16th - wet track, jockey injured in previous race and sent home after the Cup in a wheelchair!)
• Balmuse 10th (no excuses)

So, a profitable start to the spring carnivals!

Note: if you're looking for tips for this year's race you need to look for a link on the home page (under the cover image).

Melbourne Cup 2004
(filed Saturday 30 October 2004)

There's not a great deal of depth among the locals, so Makybe Diva is a standout and worthy favourite. Caulfield Cup form is always good for the Melbourne Cup, and her run out wide was outstanding. Wins in the past year in the Melbourne Cup and Sydney Cup indicate how much she loves 3200 metres, which can't be said for many of the locals.

She's Archie would be the exception but how can you put any money on a sore horse? She's missed a vital lead-up race and had a restricted training program, so it's hard to see her fit enough for such a tough race.

Elvstroem has been sensational this spring but it's hard to see him holding off Makybe Diva over 3200 metres. He meets her 2.5 kg worse after being penalised for his Caulfield Cup victory, and has not raced beyond 2500 metres so there must be a little doubt about him despite his brilliance.

Pacific Dancer and Another Warrior are useful handicappers and could challenge for the placings. Note that Pacific Dancer has no wet form.

Mummify's run in the Caulfield Cup was too bad to be true, and probably due to the wet track. But showers are forecast for Monday so he's unlikely to get the hard track he needs. Even then, Makybe Diva was too strong for him in the Sydney Cup and I expect the same to be the case on Tuesday.

Grey Song ran well in the Caulfield Cup, but he's always running on in these races without winning. He's already had his chance in the feature handicaps but has never been quite good enough.

Many of the international runners come with big reputations but don't acclimatise, and it's often been the less fancied international runners that have performed well, like Jardine's Lookout last year. (Note that Media Puzzle had won the Geelong Cup impressively before taking out the 2002 Melbourne Cup, so we could see that he had acclimatised well. Vintage Crop was Dermott Weld's second-string horse in 1993.)

Vinnie Roe is the international runner with the big reputation this year, and deservedly so. He's won the Irish St Leger for the past 4 years, and finished 4th when he ran in the Melbourne Cup in 2002. Trainer Dermot Weld says he needs the track to be dead or slower, but this could be a ruse as he's won 9 of 16 races on good tracks.

Media Puzzle has been a cripple since winning the 2002 Melbourne Cup on a hard track and has raced only twice since (including a 6 length defeat by Vinnie Roe in September). For that reason he also doesn't want it too dry. Watch him in the mounting yard to see if his jockey is carrying an A-frame.

Distinction was going to run in the Caulfield Cup but had a slight fever and was scratched. It shouldn't have upset his training too much so he can't be ruled out. With the lack of depth in the race he's the other obvious raider to consider.

Hug's Dancer is now trained in Australia, so it's easier to line up his form. He beat Elvstroem at Flemington over 1600 metres in September (Elvstroem beat him at his next two starts), but otherwise he has not lived up to his reputation with midfield finishes in the past two Caulfield Cups and last year's Melbourne Cup.

THE TIP (30 October 2004)

1. Makybe Diva is clearly on top
2. Vinnie Roe
3. Elvstroem
4. Distinction
5. Pacific Dancer

Longshot: Another Warrior (50-1)

SUGGESTED BET

Place most of your stake on Makybe Diva, with a little on some of the others as insurance.

CUPdate 10 am Tuesday

A brief downpour last night, and a bit more rain forecast for today but nothing that will affect the above tips as the first three (and to a lesser extent Another Warrior) don't mind it soft, while the track should still be suitable for Distinction and Pacific Dancer. Good luck!

THE RESULT

A bit more rain than expected at 10am yet:

• Makybe Diva 1st
• Vinnie Roe 2nd
• Elvstroem 4th
• Distinction (6th)
• Pacific Dancer (21st as he was not suited in the mud that developed after 2pm)

Once again the horses tipped this year have come through, this time in order!

Thank you to all those who sent emails to science@control.com.au, as these encourage me to put my tips on the line again next year. Perhaps you'll reinvest your winnings in a subscription to Australasian Science!