The Science of Gambling

There's no real science to gambling, only probability. And with that theme in mind, Australasian Science's Editor, Guy Nolch, presented a segment in October 2000 on Radio National's The Science Show examining the probability of beating the casino in a number of games, as well as the best way to pick the winner of the Melbourne Cup (the script is online here). The segment drew a number of responses from listeners who wanted Guy's tips, and these were published on the Australasian Science website. The three tips and a longshot came in first, second, fourth and sixth.

Each year since then, Australasian Science has received a number of requests for Melbourne Cup tips, so we've continued to place these on the website (except in 2002 and 2005, when Guy was overseas).

We'll be doing the same this year, publishing preliminary tips on the Sunday morning before the race and final tips on Tuesday morning once factors such as the state of the track and scratchings are apparent.

Melbourne Cup 2006
(filed Sunday 5 November 2006; updated 10 am Tuesday 7 November)

Usually I steer clear from the internationals but this year they have it all over the locals. At least we've had a chance to see many of them compete here to form an assessment.

1. Pop Rock: Hardly raised a sweat in the Caulfield Cup but never got clear running when only 1.5 lengths behind Tawqueet. He just has to run 3200 metres, which is the query.

2. Delta Blues: The other Japanese runner was caught wide at Caulfield yet was doing his best work in the last 100 metres when third in the Cup. He's won up to 3600 metres but his Japanese jockey has never seen Flemington and he has no form on softish tracks.

3. Yeats: I've seen some of his wins in the UK, and they were impressive. He just has to bring that form here, and get some luck in running. He's won up to 4000 metres so he'll run the trip.

4. Tawqueet: An impressive winner at his last two when all the breaks went his way. In the Caulfield Cup he stuck to the fast lane on the inside while Delta Blues, Pop Rock and Activation swung wide where no horse that day made any ground. He's up 2 kg on that run too.

5. Efficient was the original pick here, but he's been scratched so I'll place Geordieland here, who has run second to Yeats this year, which puts him in the mix.

Longshot
Geordieland was the original longshot but we'll have to go with Activation here who's a good horse but will have to overcome a wide barrier.

The Result

Delta Blues (1st)

Pop Rock (2nd but would have won if he'd gone straight)

Yeats (7th: missed the start and then was ridden too hard to get to the lead)

Activation (8th)

Geordieland (18th: bled from both nostrils and is now banned from racing for 3 months)

Tawqueet (19th: injury scare before the race and pulled up lame)

Conclusion:

Happy to have picked first and second! Unlucky to get two injuries.